After Ursula von der Leyen’s recent visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina last week, there was an expectation of a clearer message regarding the future steps in the European integration process. However, things are still somewhat unclear, but not for long. These days, the decision of the European Council on opening negotiations for EU membership is expected, which could place Bosnia and Herzegovina in the same category as Serbia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia, which have already initiated negotiations.
Given the ambiguity of the messages from the past week, there are several possible scenarios. The first scenario is that Bosnia and Herzegovina obtains the status of a negotiator. The second option is that Bosnia and Herzegovina does not open negotiations, and an even worse scenario is that Bosnia and Herzegovina gets rejected while Ukraine and Moldova enter the negotiation club. The most realistic option might be a hybrid scenario where negotiations are opened, but without a clear start date, which would be conditional on meeting certain requirements.
It is essential to note that this issue has not been seriously discussed in the expert community, and we have mostly been informed through political statements, which serve for political positioning. The current government has intensified its efforts to meet European demands, but the pace and quality of these efforts still fall short of the expectations of a country aiming for European integration.
Currently, this process serves as a common denominator for the ruling coalition, but it lacks sincerity and willingness among the actors to address the key issues. Politics remains divided, and political blockades persist. The only difference is that the Troika and HDZ have managed to avoid a complete political confrontation. This is not a minor achievement, given that the public is already tense and impatient for compromises, which the opposition successfully exploits. Therefore, the political space for decision-making is limited and complicated.
What opens up this political space is the prospect of European integration. It could even be said that European prospects and political efficiency are interconnected elements. To make progress, the adoption of 14 priorities is required, which demands cooperation and a culture of political agreement. Without European prospects or the initiation of negotiations, political agreement will become even more challenging.
Hence, the decision we await this week is of paramount importance. If Bosnia and Herzegovina is left out, the public will become increasingly sceptical of the European Union and will not tolerate unpopular compromise solutions. Unfortunately, the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s political structure may lead to a complete political paralysis.
It is not clear how well political actors, especially those in favour of European integration, have communicated what the European Union’s decision means for Bosnian society, as contacts still largely happen behind closed doors. Nevertheless, the decision will clearly indicate our current position. Are we moving forward, waiting alongside other countries, or are we left behind closed doors? This is not inconsequential.